The Pathway to MVP
How Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama, and Nikola Jokić are each carving out a unique path to the league’s most coveted individual award.
All season, the trail of the MVP conversation has wound through sharp turns, unexpected bends, and constantly shifting situations.
Now, as the end of the road finally comes into view, it has settled on three contenders: Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, San Antonio Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama, and Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokić.
Happy Wednesday, and it feels great to say welcome back to Between the Sidelines! This week, we’re following the path to crowning this year’s MVP and circling the three players who are at the center of the conversation.
In many ways, this is a follow-up to what’s quietly become my favorite piece that I’ve shared on here, aka The Making of a Rookie of the Year. But at the same time, I could argue that this is a topic that stands on its own entirely.
While that piece explored emergence in the league, this one follows a different trail entirely: the path of being established, and defining what it truly means to stand at the top of the NBA.
It begs the question: what does it really take to be the NBA’s Most Valuable Player?
Well, like most journeys throughout this league, it starts with the numbers.
So, let’s get into them.
Contender #1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
If you’re mapping out this year’s race, the path starts with the reigning MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
If Gilgeous-Alexander captures a second straight MVP title, he immediately steps into rare air: just 15 players in the NBA have ever won the award more than once, and he’d be the 16th.
(Author’s Note: Four of those 15 players are still active today, including LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and one of SGA’s MVP competitors this season, Nikola Jokić.)
And he’s put together a season that warranted him being right back in this conversation.
He finished second in the league in points per game (31.1, trailing Luka Dončić at 33.5), tied for first in field goals made (10.8), tied for first in free throws made per game (7.9), and all while maintaining a shooting split of 55.3 / 38.6 / 87.9.
His true shooting percentage (66.5%) was the highest of his career, and flirted with surpassing the mark set by Stephen Curry in 2015/16 for the most efficient scoring season by a guard averaging 30 or more points per game.
But, of course, it gets even better.
Gilgeous-Alexander surpassed Michael Jordan’s 1990/91 field goal mark of 53.9%, and finished at 55.3% to set the highest field goal percentage ever recorded by a guard averaging over 30 points per game.
This is also Shai’s fourth straight season averaging 30 points per game, which makes him only the fifth player in league history to have done that.
And then there’s the consistency, of course.
The type that runs through Gilgeous-Alexander’s play is the kind that spans across seasons, and in this case, actually rewrites history.
He smashed a record held by Wilt Chamberlain for over six decades, as he scored at least 20 points in 127 consecutive games in league play. The streak began on November 1, 2024, when the Oklahoma City Thunder went on the road to face the Portland Trail Blazers and he recorded a stunning 30-point performance.
Other than Shai, not many players had ever gotten close to beating this elusive record. Chamberlain himself recorded 92 consecutive games, Oscar Robertson had 79, and Kevin Durant had 72. That underscores just how rare it was to even approach the record.
Breaking it demanded something more, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had the consistency to finish the job.
Fellow players have taken notice and highlighted this trait of his, too. The Celtics’ Jaylen Brown said in regards to SGA: “I think the signs of greatness is just how consistent [Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is]. That’s very impressive..”
That’s the thing about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, though. He’s stacking these elite seasons consecutively, and they’re built on a rare blend of style, efficiency, and consistency that shows up every single night.
When he’s on the court, he is undoubtedly one of the league’s most difficult scorers to guard, for a couple of reasons.
He consistently can find creative ways to take a trip down to the free throw line and be incredibly effective there, sure.
But more than that, SGA operates more than comfortably in the midrange, is known in and out of the league for having superb body control, and can quickly change the pace of a game when necessary.
He’s the definition of calm, cool, and collected.
But, how about we add one more c to that? Clutch.
On Tuesday, April 21, SGA was announced by the NBA as the 2025/26 Kia NBA Clutch Player of the Year. He won dominantly, leading the vote with 484 points, which was 367 points more than the Denver Nuggets’ Jamal Murray, who was in second place with 117 (Minnesota Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards came in third, with 116 points).
SGA was stunning in late-game situations this season, with a league leading 175 clutch-time points. The Thunder posted a 20-7 record in 27 clutch games where SGA was available to play, and “outscored opponents by 93 points in those clutch situations with him on the floor.”
Let’s look at a graph, shall we?
Here’s the thing, right?
Superstars can have stunning seasons, but a true MVP sustains that level of excellence year after year. And with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander putting together back-to-back seasons defined by elite production, clutch performances, and a remarkable sense of consistency, all signs honestly point towards one outcome: SGA being the favorite for his second straight MVP award.
Contender #2: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
Then we’re led to Nikola Jokić, the three-time MVP whose place in this race has become almost permanent terrain.
As a refresher, Jokić has won the NBA’s most coveted individual award a total of three times (2020/21, 2021/22, 2023/24). He was runner-up to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the MVP voting for last year’s edition of the award, with 787 points compared to SGA’s winning score of 913.
This season, he gained some serious ground in the league history books. Jokić ended the year becoming the first player in NBA history to ever lead the league in both assists (12.9) and rebounds (10.7) over a whole season.
The milestones did not stop there. Earlier this year, Jokić passed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most assists ever recorded by a center, closing the regular season with 6,080 total assists.
And when you think of Jokić, triple-doubles and double-doubles might come to mind.
This season, he was first in most triple-doubles recorded in the league with 34 (for reference, Jalen Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks finished second with 13). Then, Jokić finished second in double-doubles with 55, trailing only the New York Knicks’ Karl-Anthony Towns, who led the league with just one more (56).
In fact, Jokić on the season averaged a triple-double, and joined the Sacramento Kings’ Russell Westbrook as “as the only players in NBA history to average a triple-double in back-to-back seasons.” And the climb up the history books may not be finished yet, as Jokić sits only a handful of triple-doubles away from surpassing Westbrook’s all-time regular season record.
Jokić also wrapped up the season with 27.7 points per game, marking the second-highest scoring average of his career. The only season he scored more came just last year, when he ended the 2024/25 Regular Season with 29.6 points per game.
Even when looking at advanced metrics like Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Jokić remained near the top of the league. He finished second in PER at 32.43, trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks, who led the league at 32.74.
For a tiny bit of context, a PER of 15.0 is considered league average, while MVP-caliber seasons typically fall somewhere above the 25+ mark. Jokić’s score also placed him ahead of Gilgeous-Alexander, who ranked third at 30.90, and Wembanyama, who finished fourth at 29.94.
(Author’s Note: All three of the MVP candidates were ranked second, third, and fourth in PER, respectively, which just shows how close this race is.)
But, let’s be crystal clear: Jokić is not considered the favorite to win MVP this year.
In fact, many see him as trailing both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama (who we’ll discuss in the next section) in the vote for the award.
Some chalk this up to what is called voter fatigue. Search “voter fatigue + Jokić” on your search engine of choice and you’ll quickly see how often the discussion appears around his candidacy.
But, what is voter fatigue, you may ask?
Great question!
Ironically enough, CBS Sports defined it in an article about Jokić three years ago this way:
“On the most basic level, it refers to the idea that awards voters tend to favor newer candidates. When an incumbent or established winner seeks a second trophy and loses to a newcomer, it is often invoked by the more experienced candidate’s supporters. ‘Voters are bored of Player X’s greatness,’ they’ll say.”
Denver Head Coach David Adelman briefly discussed this theory in early April. He said: “All these guys [Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama] are so good for the game, but I just don’t want people to skip past our guy [Jokić] because he’s won it three times.”
So, applied to Jokić, the idea some carry is this: voters may hesitate to hand him a fourth MVP because they have already seen him reach that summit three times before.
It can be a dangerous path to go down when the conversation stops being about whether a player is performing at an MVP level, and starts becoming more about whether or not voters simply want to see the same name at the top again.
But, here’s what we have to ponder: is it really voter fatigue, or were other players like SGA and Wembanyana simply just better on the season?
Contender #3: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama’s argument rests on his ability to dominate both the defensive and offensive sides of the game with remarkable ease.
Our Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) rounds out the top three contenders for MVP, inserting himself into another year-end award conversation.
Wembanyama logged fewer minutes than the other contenders due to injury and only narrowly cleared the NBA’s awards eligibility threshold. He appeared in 64 regular season games, but the NBA Cup Final counted toward the league’s 65-game requirement. But, even with missed time, he still performed at a level dominant enough not only to remain firmly in the MVP race, but to outright win Defensive Player of the Year.
And not just win it, he became the youngest player ever to do so and earned the award unanimously by gaining all 100 votes.
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Anyone who watches the NBA already understands how special he is, and Wemby himself certainly does too. He made his own case for MVP in late March in a discussion with Jared Weiss of The Athletic. Here’s what Wembanyama had to say about his candidacy and why he believes he belongs at the front of the race:
“My first one [argument] would be that defense is 50 percent of the game and that is undervalued, so far, in the MVP race [...] I believe I’m the most impactful player defensively in the league. Second argument would be that we almost swept OKC [Oklahoma City Thunder] in the season and we dominated them three times with their real team and four times with the, you know, more rotation players. My third argument would be that offense impact is not just points.”
It’s a valid and extremely compelling point that defense is undervalued in terms of the MVP race, where a player’s offense is certainly prioritized.
The unique case with Victor Wembanyama, though, is that his impact stretches across both ends of the floor in a way very few stars can truly match.
This NBA Regular Season, he held a 51.2% field goal average, 34.9% three point average, 82.7% free throw average, 62.6% true shooting percentage, and 25.0 points per game.
While his points per game might trail Jokić and SGA’s (27.7 and 31.1, respectively), his total still is good for 13th in the league overall. In fact, both his field goal percentage and scoring average marked career highs this season, suggesting that his offensive game is still climbing while being arguably the best defender in the league.
ESPN summarized the defensive campaign that earned him DPOY this way:
“Wembanyama led the NBA in blocks (197) for the second consecutive season, in addition to logging 66 steals for a Spurs team that finished with the league’s second-best defensive rating (110.4). Wembanyama ranked fourth in rebounding (11.5 per game) and was second behind Jokic in defensive rebounding (9.5).”
That is what makes Wembanyama and his case for MVP so compelling. He already impacts games like a superstar, thrives on both ends of the floor, and as aforementioned, continues to expand his game with each passing season.
And perhaps the most interesting part for the rest of the league is that he is nowhere near his prime yet, and he is already this good.
Many writers and fans floated the idea that had the San Antonio Spurs toppled the Oklahoma City Thunder for the top seed in the West, it would’ve been hard to overlook Wembanyama’s case for MVP this year.
Even if Wemby doesn’t add this piece of hardware to his trophy cabinet this year, it seems ridiculously unlikely that further down the line we won’t see him win an MVP or two.. or three.
Or more.
Each of these three stars represents a different path to the top of the NBA.
Gilgeous-Alexander built his MVP case on consistency, Jokić on statistical brilliance, and Wembanyama on overwhelming two-way dominance. But all of those paths ultimately converge here, at the same destination: the race to be recognized as the best basketball player in the league this season.
And after watching this race unfold with my NBA League Pass subscription, my vote goes to Gilgeous-Alexander to win his second consecutive MVP award.
Let’s be honest: sustaining the level of efficiency, control, and consistency SGA shows night after night is not easy, especially once fans and everyone around the league begin expecting that caliber of performance from him all the time.
In almost the same way that Jokić’s stat lines have almost become normalized, Gilgeous-Alexander’s brilliance may feel underappreciated because of how often he delivers it. His consistency and excellence becomes “boring,” to some.
(Author’s Note: Not to mention the “free throw merchant,” idea, but I digress.)
But, if we’re being honest, we should be celebrating this level of excellence that is doled out every day, not dulling it.
And while my vote absolutely goes to Shai this season, it feels impossible to ignore Wemby’s trajectory. Truthfully, if his development continues at this pace, there could be a time where both the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year races are his to lose.
Those are just my thoughts.
Now, I want to hear yours.
Tell me, who is your MVP for this season?
Until then, I might just see you Between the Sidelines.
Great read Sophia! :)
I agree on SGA for MVP. His consistency is just so hard to fathom, to a point where it's underappreciated IMO. You can go into any given game knowing how SGA will take over and THAT he will take over. I do love Wemby and Jokic's unique impact as well but that case for is just too strong.
The depth of research is unmatched, the debate quality even more so!
MVP candidate has to go to SGA. Say what you will about the fouls, he’s standing out on a team that’s damn near perfect. Two sweeps into the conference finals as well! To stand out that much takes a real MVP effort!!